1. Do you think there will be a 2026 HasLab for the Vintage collection? OR do you think Hasbro/LucasFilm will skip 2026 & 2027 to focus on movie toys for Mando/Grogu and Starfighter?
--Jeremiah

I haven't heard any announcement (or non-announcement) of a 2026 HasLab for any brand yet. In Hasbro's shoes I'd wait to see how tariffs shake out. Even at 10% or 15%, you're looking at a big wad of cash. Further, we're still owed Gunships from last year and Hasbro doesn't tend to have a long period of overlap from project to project. I wouldn't expect anything soon, unless there's a surprise movie tie-in, which I am not expecting.

The success of a crowdfund relies on certainty and predictability. You can plan against normal levels of inflation. If you don't know what it will cost to free your goods from port, you probably don't want to do a prepaid crowdfund product. I have no idea what Hasbro will do in this environment, and I'm quite eager to see. We haven't seen a new HasLab product of any kind since the Gunship ended in September.

With Rogue One turning 10 in December and Star Wars turning 50 in 14 months, my guess would be that we're in a "now or never" phase for anything from the original trilogy - and a Death Star has been the big guess from fans over the past year. I feel that there's no way they'll let a 50th anniversary marketing beat go to waste. Of course, they could do something like a Jedi High Council or a slightly bigger Turbo Tank, which I hope does not happen. I also don't expect a new movie crowdfund, only because we haven't seen one yet. It seems like the kind of thing that Hasbro would be unlikely to do unless there's previously existing demand, like most of the other items we've received.

Time's running out on the old movie fans, though. The 11-year-old from 1977 will be 60 this year. The 4-year-old will be 53. That's your age range for "kid who saw the original movie in theaters who was nuts about the toys." There will probably be a limit on future goofy toy purchases for the soon-to-be retiring generation of fans. We have yet to see collecting toys as an activity people get more engaged in as they enter retirement. If I were in Hasbro's shoes, I'd be looking at every "in case of emergency break glass" initiative for deployment. Hasbro makes great stuff, but held a lot back for a very long time - maybe even too long - on things like the Blockade Runner, a figure-scale Star Destroyer (since the 1995 relaunch), and a Death Star that's more than $20. We're also at a point where I think you would struggle to get a room full of fans to agree on any crowdfund.

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2. What's up with prices? I was pleasantly surprised to see a drop in Black Series. But, what about Vintage?
--Dan

First, a tangent.

I had an exchange with Dan, and it looks like there's a misunderstanding out there. Since last fall, the retail price of The Black Series basic figures (and Marvel Legends and G.I. Joe Classified Series and Transformers deluxe collector figures) went up from $24.99 to $27.99, about a 12% jump. (Or if you measure back to 2020 prices, a 40% jump.) Most big collector stores are charging $27.99, but Amazon is charging $29.99 on many of those new figures. Why? Well, anyone can charge whatever they feel like, and they feel like charging more. Maybe it's margins, maybe someone didn't realize that Hasbro Pulse, Entertainment Earth, GameStop, Big Bad Toy Store, and the others are at around $27.99. And so is Target, and so are most figures at Walmart.

Surprisingly few adults compare prices when shopping. Maybe they're happier than I am. They think they do, but most just assume their go-to place (Costco, Amazon, Walmart, etc.) is giving them the lowest price on toilet paper. Very few people actually calculate what they're paying per square foot for their mega ultra triple-rolls that are equal to three regular rolls, or know if Kleenex or store-brand tissues give you a better blow for your buck. Don't trust that your favorite store is doing right by you, unless I work there, in which case thank you for your support.

So what about The Vintage Collection pricing? I don't expect any change unless Hasbro decides that the tariff landscape changing warranted it. There are a number of lawsuits regarding tariffs, but I would be very surprised to see Nintendo lower the price on any of its Switch 2 products, and as long as sales are strong I don't know that I would expect Hasbro to drop any of its fan-product prices.

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This might be of interest - the Minnesota Star Tribune wrote up Target’s plan to create “the most delightful experience in retail” [alternate link] which doesn't sound great to me. Admittedly, I'm weird - my leaving the house tends to focus on my search for food, toys, records, and video game stuff... which makes Target a regular stop. If a place has toys, I'll go there for groceries or toilet paper, probably, as long as the price is within researched pricing parameters.

The article says: "Target plans to cut the number of home products it sells in half, in an attempt to achieve less-is-more impact. That strategy extends to sporting goods, toys, and electronics." That doesn't sound great. "Target can’t beat Walmart and Amazon on price and speed, yet groceries remain Target’s biggest sales driver. Target plans to enlarge the grocery area in new and remodeled stores." I mean, I guess bring what people want.  But if your store doesn't have good toys that I want, and your competitor does, I'm going there.

What's interesting about this - and yeah, I'm picking on Target, I can pick on Walmart too - their toy aisles have been kind of sparsely populated over the past five years. At least a few feet of shelving tends to be bare. Everybody does their own thing their own way, but we're in an era where most Americans don't have a toy store nearby. You have to go to Target or Walmart, or maybe Amazon, if you want to browse things. Online toy shopping works fairly fine for collectors, as we tend to know what we want and we're specific about it. If kids see the right ad (or their friends point out something) they may go after specific toys, but a lot of discovery just sort of happens. I may be in the minority, but even though I'm in the business I go to stores to see things that may not be on my radar (or are exclusive.)

I know stores go where the money is. It's still a little sad to hear even more toy aisle real estate may be going away, because the toy ecosystem does thrive on kids going "I want that." With Kay-Bee, Kmart, Toys R Us, Zany Brainy, ToyCo and so many other stores just being gone I don't know if this bodes well for the biz. Maybe we'll see more direct-to-consumer sales, or more industry consolidation.

Does anyone out there have designs on a retail toy store empire? We used to have lots of regional stores before Toys R Us and Kay-Bee effectively dominated the large-footprint and mall stores, respectively. Toys R Us is still finding its way. On a lark I used their store locator the other night and everything near me has the right address... but when you click "view on map" the illustration is miles away from the actual location of the stores. I checked locations in Phoenix, Tucson, and Los Angeles... and they don't seem to be where they actually are. But I digress. They should fix that. It's pretty funny how wildly incorrect the maps are here.  Go check, it's fun.

--Adam Pawlus

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