1. This is the million-dollar question (or at least the 145% question): what will happen with the [HasLab] Cantina? We already paid $500 for this thing... but if there will be a 145% tariff on these when they ship, Hasbro will lose $725 per unit (which appears to equate to $10MM+ given the 14K+ backers)! Does this effectively mean the Cantina is permanently delayed... or potentially canceled? Let's assume the sets have been manufactured but not shipped—even the holding costs to store indefinitely might result in a massive Hasbro loss. What is realistically going to happen with this set? Is there a precedent for this? Is this going to be a casualty of the trade war or is there some little noticed exception/codicil to the tariff rules that gets these a pass (perhaps since they were prepaid)? And can we secretly dispatch two Jedi Knights to settle the conflict?
-- Rash Flembar

The only people who might know are Hasbro and the US President, and they're not talking to me about this yet. We don't know how this is going to play out. Tariffs went from non-existent, to 10%, to 20%, to 54%, to 125%, to 145% and now 30% between February and May. It was 0% on toys last year. The Cantina HasLab playset is not due to ship until the fall. Given the history of HasLab, that may mean early 2026. A lot can happen between now and then.

Today, I'm feeling positive. If the tariff goes up from 30%, that will change.

I don't know how much Hasbro is pocketing per crowdfunded unit, but it's real money otherwise they wouldn't do it. Tariffs are based on the declared cost of goods. It will change depending on who (in the retail food chain) is bringing it in - whoever pays less for it pays a lower tariff. If Hasbro brings in an item from China, the tariff is lower than if a store brings it in - because Hasbro has to charge the store a mark-up, and the tariff is based on that mark-up. I bring this up because I am assuming Hasbro is pocketing more money on a HasLab (selling direct to the customer) than Hasbro would be making selling the item to Walmart (who also needs to make money before it goes to the consumer.)

So what may happen?

It's possible that Hasbro will delay the goods until the tariff forecast improves. Maybe Hasbro can accelerate production right now at 30%. It's probably not possible to accelerate the build, and it could be higher or lower in a few weeks. I assume there will be a lot of hurrying up and waiting with production, and Chinese warehouses are going to make a lot of money just storing things until tariff terms improve.

Hasbro could cancel the item. I don't believe they will do this at 30%. Fans would not have confidence in future projects if a fully funded campaign failed to deliver at the agreed-upon terms. If it was still at 145%, I assume anybody would be looking for a way out of losing that much money.

Hasbro could ask for more money. Like canceling the item, I believe this could destroy any faith in the Hasbro crowdfunding program.

It's possible that Hasbro can afford it, and it will arrive on schedule. At the current rate, I would expect this is what will happen. Hasbro's profits will be smaller, but we'll get the goods. Hopefully we'll get the goods in 2025, but it's hard to predict.

Since all tariffs are imposed by the country importing the goods (you can't spell US without us), it is possible the United States could just say "never mind." It's America's decision to impose a tariff on goods coming in to America. America can stop it. But, people need to complain. Representatives and Senators need to know tariffs are unpopular with voters, as - believe it or not - levying them is their duty. I weirdly feel that nobody seems to care but people who work around imported stuff much of the time. Maybe they will when the price increases start popping up. And if you're pro-tariffs on toys, we're probably not going to get along well.

Hasbro could move production in whole or in part to Vietnam or another country. It would be expensive to move the molds, but it might be a lot cheaper to spirit it away in the middle of the night and just slap a "Made in Vietnam" on the box. How possible is this to do? Honestly - I don't know. I've seen some things moved around but it's rare, and I don't think it could be done without delaying the product. To avoid a 145% tariff, I assume Hasbro is looking at every possible option to do whatever is the best for shareholders. (Making collectors angry is bad for shareholders.)

What do I think is the most likely?

You'll get your item, it will be delayed, and Hasbro's slice of the profits will decrease. I would hope Disney/Lucasfilm would be willing to renegotiate royalties for this item given the circumstance, too, but that's above my pay grade.

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2. As new figures will be released during the tariff debacle, do you think that with fewer people buying them due to the increased cost, some figures may become more rare in the long run?
--Chris

This question was sent in 5/13. I anticipate tariffs will have changed again before this goes live.

Very few items from the modern era are genuinely rare.

Some companies paused shipments - but anything shipping after February 4 is on the hook for some sort of tariff, as opposed to previously, when toys being imported to the USA were not subject to an added tariff. What it is, and what the rules are, seem to be changing and it is a mess.

The action figure collection world is getting increasingly self-selecting. The hobby has been bleeding fans, and with wildly out-of-sync toy releases coming months after (and a few before) the new TV shows when people just aren't paying attention as much. I don't know if fans are consciously skipping stuff so much as going to the store and not seeing much new... as has been the case for a while. There's no central repository for "truth" as to what exists or when it's coming out, and we're seeing a lot more items sell out instantly that may result in more fans shouting "...but I wanted to get that!" Heck, it happened to me!

My hunch is Hasbro is going to right-size (and/or downsize) some runs. My hope is that means an item ships, the market heats up, and Hasbro says "hold on, let's do another run of this" - but it might be at a different price because of the unpredictable nature of the market. Unless, of course, reality changes again.

I do expect some products will be in shorter supply, but don't forget demand. Some of the stuff that's on the horizon is actually really exciting. If I can't get a Vintage Cantina Adventure Set at retail price, I'm going to call in favors or just overpay for one on eBay. It's something I want. Conversely if I miss out on something from one of the new streaming shows, I might let it go. We've all got priorities and "rarity" is sort of meaningless in the face of "I want that." A common figure can be much more highly demanded. For example, the end-of-the-line Anakin Skywalker figure from 1984 is pretty scarce - and worth about $30. An original Darth Vader was made in the millions, for every movie, over 7-8 years, and is also worth about $30 because people want Darth Vader.

My big concern is people might be incentivized to quit if things are "missed." For The Black Series I started getting cranky because I missed the exclusive variant of The Armorer, and I let it go for a while because it was just accessories. And Amazon's Cad Bane exclusive price was a little too high. And then Target sold out of The Clone Wars wave of exclusives a few years ago and I couldn't get them. And I skipped a few more, and a few more, and then I had a chance to buy some of the ones I missed for $5-$7... and I decided that even getting them for $20 off wasn't going to actually make me happy. The same may prove true for others as people have their habits broken without their consent.

As long as fans do what they do best - complain - Hasbro may listen and crank out more units to fill the needs of the market. Hasbro wants to know if they're missing out on customers, and if things start to normalize we will hopefully see things improve for all parties.

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FIN

Edition sizes can be changed. If an item gets made in a big run for Europe, it'll eventually find its way to the international market online somehow. If US demand is super short, there's always a chance Hasbro might go back for another bite at the apple. We've seen some pre-COVID-19 items rereleased in the past year. That Return of the Jedi set with Mon Mothma and Yak Face is getting another run. And now we're finding out that just because HasLab did a thing, Hasbro might make a new and slightly different version of it at a lower price later. Second chances are a very real thing, no matter the market conditions (plus or minus a lapsed license.)

It's also important to be a little patient. Target's Star Wars Retro Collection Star Wars: A New Hope Figure Multipack had a pre-order SNAFU where every order got canceled, only for the item to start popping up days later. And now it looks like it's in stock at some stores around town, with it going in and out of stock for shipping. As fans, we don't always have all of the information and things change frequently, so don't be too surprised if an item that seemed sold out suddenly appears again, or gets rerun, or never actually got distributed fully in the first place.

Comic-Con exclusives are starting to make the rounds, assuming they'll actually show up at Comic-Con! So far we haven't seen much for Star Wars, which is not a huge surprise given that the year is basically over. It would be a good time to lean on "classic" and just let the pegs clear up for the new movies, mostly because there are still a lot of old figures from as far back as 2021 haunting pegs around town. There are new ones too - but it's always weird when you suddenly come up with another The Client.

Hopefully we'll see some new news, or good news, or retro news, in the weeks ahead. A bunch of new exclusives are starting to ship, but after this it might be pretty quiet until the various summer convention panels. And even then, those aren't always guaranteed to be massively newsworthy.

--Adam Pawlus

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